The world needs a good COP

That a deal is critical has never been more clear. The scientific consensus is overwhelming and devastating and portends the end of the world as we know it. The negotiations, on the other hand, plod along as if the issue at stake were of minor importance – something that can wait.

But this deal cannot wait, and in the next 12 months civil society must stand up as never before and demand urgent, real and binding agreements from governments at the Copenhagen summit. It is important at this time to remember what is at stake. The science and the politics can too easily mask the urgency of the situation, and at the COPs, of which I have attended the last two, this seems more true than anywhere.

The world temperature looks set to rise to at least 2 degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels unless unprecedented (and extremely unlikely) action is taken now. Many are resigned to this, and in fact the majority of civil society actors are calling for action to ensure a maximum 2 degree rise. However, at a Third World Network side event in Poznan we were reminded that a 2 degree rise will have devastating consequences. One third of the Philippines will disappear, the impact on Bangladesh and the number of climate refugees created cannot be imagined. Small-island states including Tuvalu will disappear completely as sea-levels rise. Insects, including those we rely on to pollinate plants and keep ecosystems functioning, will migrate in strange directions leading to currently unforeseeable consequences.

These impacts are not some terrible dystopian vision of 100 years time, but the very likely state of the world in our lifetimes. People living in poverty, and especially women, who are most vulnerable to shocks, will be hit first and by far worst. However, nowhere will be immune to the changes in the world’s climate.

We have one year to fight for a deal in Copenhagen that at best can limit the devastation about to be wreaked on people and the planet. However, currently the civil society response is weak and uncoordinated.

Whilst there are many coalitions and campaigns calling for action on climate change, and some of those appear to demand urgent and radical action, the pressure from big business, the oil companies and real-politic is far more powerful. The short-sighted needs of companies for profit and governments for re-election are, appallingly, outweighing the needs of all of us for a sustainable and equitable future.

In the next two years, there is the potential for the entire development paradigm to be reshaped. The financial crisis has not only shown the inherent flaws of the neo-liberal capitalist system, it has also shown that governments can find money when it is needed. The US has a new, and seemingly more enlightened administration. The UN will meet in 2010 at the Millennium +10 summit to discuss progress on the Millennium Development Goals, and likely outline a post-2015 agenda. And the climate change talks will come to a head in Copenhagen.

Civil society has a great and historic role to play in the coming months and years. We must rise together in the North and South, rich and poor, men and women to demand our governments move beyond politics to a more enlightened phase of international cooperation where the needs of people come first, and those of business and profit second. It is not an easy task – nor is it an impossible one.

But it is certainly our only chance.

Ben Margolis, GCAP Mobilisation and Outreach coordinator