Countries in a bind on whether to discuss binding targets

On Day two of the Bali Conference, countries were divided over whether to discuss a provision on binding targets to curb carbon emissions.  Apparently, there is no explicit agreement to include targets in the Bali Roadmap or to leave this discussion for the next round of negotiations in Poland in 2008 and Denmark in 2009. The so-called Bali Roadmap is expected to create the next phase of commitment after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 20I2.

I’m guessing a thought balloon popped up in your head just after reading this intro. And it says: But what’s needed are targets! In fact, what’s needed are hard caps on emissions!  Millions of poor people are suffering right now from the negative impacts of climate change, hello? Action is needed now, not in 2008 or 2009!”

My thoughts exactly.  Talk about being of one mind.  

Then again being of one mind seems a remote possibility in the Bali talks. It seems that the most important thing here, the issue on which the talks hinge is whether a compromise with the United States will be achieved. The consensus from reading the media reports on the second day of the talks is this: failure to reach a compromise will weaken the Bali Roadmap. Right. But isn’t failure to curb emissions quickly going to destroy millions of lives, lands and livelihood?

Incidentally, the US and UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer seem to be of one mind. They both uttered the same analogy about the Bali talks as being some kind of a first date in which the parties are not expected to make a commitment. De Boer has made a statement to the effect that a marriage contract is a culmination of a love affair, not the topic of discussion on the first date. Then comes the US with “We will be very open and flexible, but we don’t want to start off with anything here in the beginning of the process that is going to pre judge what ultimately may be concluded by 2009. So to the extent that this is analogous to a first date, we don’t want to sign the marriage contract yet.”

Thought balloon pops back up with “I hate commitment phobes!” Ok, so maybe that wasn’t what your thought balloon says.

So to the extent that the US calls the Bali talks a first date, we can conclude that this is not going to work. First dates don’t work, it’s the law of physics. Thing is, for me, when you are running out of time, you don’t go on first dates. You plan and make a decision to commit to someone who will make you happy or contented or at least someone you can tolerate – or you make a decision not to make a commitment at all. Imagine you only have one year to live, would you go on successive first dates hoping something will work out with someone along the way?         

Anyway, talking about commitment, legally-binding targets indeed have to discussed in Bali. It is urgent to make an action now and not next year on reducing emissions drastically.  There is no debate that voluntary commitment does not work. The European Union has taken this position and it has announced that it should take the lead on setting legally-binding targets that should be discussed in Bali. Moreover, it announced that it is moving closer to achieving its collective emissions reduction target in 2010 to 7.4% below the 1990 level, which is just short of the 8% reduction target for 2012.#

lani villanueva